As the sun climbs higher over the southern Plains, most areas are enjoying a dry and warm Thursday afternoon. But don’t let the calm skies fool you, change is quietly brewing on the horizon.

Temperatures are running above seasonal norms, with highs stretching into the lower to mid-90s across much of the region. KNCT Meteorologist Bill Hecke described the morning as “mostly clear with mild temperatures in the 60s and 70s,” accompanied by a gentle southern breeze. That breeze will linger through the day, occasionally gusting near any developing showers.

While the majority of the area will stay dry today, a slight chance of isolated storms remains. Yesterday’s radar picked up only a few modest returns, but even a weak thunderstorm can surprise an unprepared afternoon.

Tonight into Friday, a weak cold front will begin its slow southeastward drift, bringing isolated to scattered storms along its path. The best chance for rain will be near the Red River, where a few strong storms may develop. Severe weather isn’t expected, but gusty winds and brief downpours could make a cameo.

The heat will persist into the weekend, with highs continuing in the 90s. But relief is on the way. By midweek, a more robust cold front will usher in cooler air, dropping temperatures into the 80s and bringing occasional chances for showers and thunderstorms. Fortunately, widespread washouts are not anticipated, and the severe weather threat remains low.

In central Texas, cities like Austin and San Antonio will see slightly above-average highs in the mid-80s to mid-90s. Isolated afternoon showers and storms may pop up, especially in the eastern and far southwestern zones.

Across the broader U.S., the Weather Prediction Center notes an upper trough over the central Plains and Mississippi Valley stirring up marginally severe storms and isolated flooding potential. The Storm Prediction Center has issued a Marginal Risk for severe weather from Oklahoma into Missouri, with hail and strong wind gusts as the primary concerns.

Meanwhile, tropical moisture from post-tropical Mario is pushing into southern California, raising the risk for flash flooding with rainfall rates exceeding 1 inch per hour. Flash Flood Watches are in effect for much of the region, and similar moisture is expected to impact New Mexico and Arizona through Friday.

The Ohio and Tennessee Valleys are baking under temperatures 10–15 degrees above average, while the Northeast will cool down this weekend thanks to a backdoor cold front. Southeast Florida continues to see widespread showers and thunderstorms, with a Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall due to deep tropical moisture.

Keep it tuned to KNCT for hourly weather updates, and visit myKNCT.com for forecasts on-demand. Whether you’re planning your weekend or watching the skies, we’ve got you covered.